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Looking back.This
page is an archive, dating from 2016. However the process of Brexit is
not yet complete – indeed may well not be complete for some time to
come.
What
just might happen...
|
What
is more likely to happen ...
|
Negotiations to leave.....
|
The UK government, with David Cameron as the new prime
minister,
successfully concludes negotiations under Article 50 of the European
Union Treaty, and Britain extracts itself painlessly from the EU. The
European Union is eager to get Britain's exit sorted out as quickly as
possible, and then begin a new relationship with a
sovereign UK, offering us favourable bilateral agreements on trade,
movement of people, reciprocal health care rights, and other subjects.
Because Britain is such an important country, we manage to
set up a new working relationship with the EU that is better than any
other nation or group of nations has been able to obtain. This is a
relationship in which we enjoy all the benefits of association with the
EU without any cost in terms of contribution to the EU budget. We get
to have our cake and eat it – unlike Switzerland
and Norway which both pay into the EU. |
Either: Theresa May
declares that more work is needed before Brexit can be triggered. This
is actually a kind way of saying "I'm not going to take the UK out of
the EU, because I don't think it is in the national interest, and I'm
not the kind of politician who can think one thing and do the opposite.
So I'll work for a
solution that is better than Brexit"
Or.
The
UK government, with Theresa May in charge,
begins negotiations under Article 50 of the European
Union Treaty, and is rapidly bogged down in inextricable international
legal problems which considerably slow down the negotiation process.
Article 50 stipulates that the terms of exit are
decided
by the remaining EU nations without the exiting country, then presented
to it when there is a
document ready. Finding agreement on a multitude of points is
likely to take a lot
longer than the two year exit period, and negotiating new arrangements
for trade, movement of people, and cooperation in a raft of areas is
liable to take up to ten years.
But continuing negotiations beyond the 2 year time frame requires the
unanimous approval of the other 27 member states. If just one member
country refuses to agree to an extension, then the UK exits from the EU
by default two years after applying to leave – but with no
new
agreements in place on any subject - neither trade nor travel nor
health care nor law nor cooperation. Britain's situation with respect
to the EU will be no different to that of countries like Burma or
Uzbekistan. Even if it is probable that the principle of visa-free
tourist traffic between the EU and the UK will be very rapidly put in
place, even this will not be automatic – though whatever is
set
up will be a reciprocal agreement.
|
Relations with the remaining European Union
|
| Both
the British government and the European Union will want to reach new
agreements as quickly as possible, as this will be in the best
interests of both. New arrangements on movement of people between the
UK and the EU (which means also between Northern Ireland and the
Republic of Ireland, an EU member state) will be in place before the
end of the two-year time-frame for negotiating the terms of exit. Since
Britain is a major market for EU goods and services, EU negotiators
will want to ensure that a customs union, or something similar to it,
is in place between the EU and the UK before the Brexit actually takes
place |
The
British government will want to reach new agreements as
quickly
as possible, but the European Union will have little interest in
speeding up the process, if only to discourage other member
states
from following Britain. After all, walking away from the European Union
will be an immensely costly and time-consuming process both for the
country wanting to leave, and for the EU, and the EU will not want to
go through it again.
More importantly though, by
leaving the EU, Britain will be making a body blow against the
institution which will be immensely damaging to the EU, and could
trigger an upsurge of populist nationalisms in other parts of Europe
– even the collapse of the EU. This would have profound and
very
costly consequences for everyone, in or out.
As Germany's finance minister has clearly states,
"Out
means out", and if that's what the UK chooses, then they will be out...
Including out of the single market. The rest of the EU is not going to
show any favours to a UK that has constantly been the most recalcitrant
member of the Union. |
Removing European law from the statute books
|
| Parliament
will act swiftly to remove unwanted European law from the statute
books, scrapping certain laws altogether such as the Human Rights Act,
and modifying others so that any inappropriate legislation is removed. |
It
will take Parliament an awfully long time to remove forty years of
legislation from the statute books. There is no way to wave a wand and
delete all references to EU law in a single piece of legislation.
Besides, Parliament will not want to remove all European law from the
statute books. Far from it.
While it may be possible to
remove a batch of laws, making changes to individual acts of parliament
must be done on a case by case basis, and each new law must be approved
by Parliament. Parliament does not have unlimited time, and must also
deal with other ongoing legislation. Extra time will need to be found
to rewrite and approve changes to thousands of existing pieces of
legislation.
In the event, most parts of European law
that have been adopted into British law will remain in force, as they
are not controversial. No government is going to rescind more than a
token part of EU environmental legislation, as most people in Britain
want laws to limit air pollution, use of pesticides - even if certain
lobbies complain that EU laws put extra costs on their
operations.
Look at the situation in Switzerland and Norway; neither
country
is a member of the European Union, but both countries adopt most of
European law. |
Life in Britain
|
Life in Britain will
get better. Freed from the cost and bureaucracy of the European Union,
our employers will be free to develop their businesses as they wish and
to conquer new markets; we will become a richer nation, and the world
will look up to a new sovereign United Kingdom.
The millions of pounds currently sent each day to
Brussels can be spent instead on building new hospitals, helping
farmers, and reducing taxes.
The number of foreigners in the UK will fall, relieving the
pressures that are currently strangling public services. Waiting times
in A&E and doctors' surgeries will fall, there will be more
housing available, and smaller class sizes in schools.
Wages for unqualified jobs will rise, once they
are no longer driven down by competition from workers from other EU
countries. Unemployment will fall to zero.
In the end, everyone will be better off. The
government will be able to reduce VAT, or replace it with a fairer form
of sales tax. |
Everyone in Britain will get poorer. The
quality of life in Britain will deteriorate, as the British economy
begins to contract following a vote to leave the EU. Unemployment will
rise, the cost of imports will rise, and as a result taxes will go up.
The millions of pounds currently sent each day to
Brussels will have to be spent making up for the loss of the large EU
grants that currently support British farmers, scientific research,
projects in Britain's poorer regions, student aid programmes, and other
European projects, and paying the army of new civil servants who will
be required to take over the running of all of Britain's new sovereign
international trade and cooperation agreements.
The number of foreigners in the UK will not fall,
as the UK will not be able to unilaterally expel foreign nationals,
especially those of them - which means the majority - who are
contributing positively to the UK economy, and filling vital roles in
public services or with private sector employers.
Pressures on the National Health Service, housing,
schools and other services will get greater, as a stagnant or falling
economy gives the government less money to invest.
VAT, which already stands at 5 points above the EU
required level, will remain high, and may even increase. The treasury
will need to find new ways of raising taxes |
Borders
and
immigration
|
Britain
will regain full control of its borders, and people from EU countries
will be subject to the same controls, restrictions and visa
requirements as those from other parts of the world.
Since visa and immigration rules are established on a
reciprocal
basis, British passport-holders will face similar restrictions when
wanting to travel to Europe for holidays or for work. Expect less
mobility, therefore higher air fares and long delays at airports and
ports. This is the price we must pay to regain the right to exclude EU
citizens from coming to Britain.
Britain will negotiate
with the EU to allow the free movement of labour between Britain and
the EU for certain types of job and up to clearly defined limits,
corresponding to the needs of the British economy.
|
Britain will regain control of
its borders, and people from EU
countries will be subject to the same controls, restrictions and visa
requirements as those from other parts of the world. British
passport-holders will face similar restrictions when wanting to travel
to Europe for holidays or for work.
But this will be the thin end of the wedge. The EU will not
be
willing, and indeed not be legally able, to allow selective
free
movement of labour between Britain and the EU. Citizens of EU countries
are equal before the law, and the EU will not sign up to a deal that
allows the UK to restrict access to Bulgarians and Poles, but not
Germans or Dutch workers. If there is to be a free movement of people
agreement, it will be like that which already exists with Switzerland.
Although it is not a member of the EU, Switzerland has signed
up
to the EU free movement of people agreement, and also to the EU
borderless Schengen zone, as the price to pay for allowing Swiss
companies, though not their financial services, free access to the EU
market. |
Trade between Britain and the EU after Brexit
|
Even
if Europe is Britain's biggest export market, taking about 40% of all
our exports, the European Union exports more to Britain than Britain
exports to Europe, so it is in Europe's interest to set up a free trade
deal with Britain as quickly as possible.
Freed
from European red tape and the cost of EU membership, British firms
will then find themselves at a competitive advantage over manufacturers
and service companies in the EU, and will be able to expand their
export business, specially if as expected the value of the pound falls
against the Europe following a Brexit vote. This will be good for jobs
in Britain.
European imports to Britain will become
relatively more expensive, and this will help to rebalance trade
between the UK and the EU in Britain's favour
|
Although
the EU exports more in value to the UK than we export to Europe, the
European Union is a much bigger economy than the UK, and in fact
Britain only takes 6% of EU exports.
Under these
circumstances, the EU will only have limited interest in
re-establishing a free-trade agreement with the UK, specially if major
industries in EU member states object to UK
exporters undercutting them.
The
EU will only set up a free trade agreement with the UK, as it has with
Switzerland or with Norway, if this is in the EU's interest; it will
have little interest in doing so if it is solely or predominantly in
the UK's interest.
Free access to European markets for
UK manufacturers and service providers will therefore be dependent on
the UK accepting European Union rules and standards concerning product
specification and workplace legislation – which will be a
pretty
pointless result, as one of the main reasons that drives people to
reject the EU is a desire to be free of these perceived forms of "red
tape".
If the UK really wants to trade favourably with
the EU, as it does today, then we will not be able to do so without
keeping EU legislation in our national law. To suggest that
we could "free ourselves" from EU legislation is complete make-believe.
Though Switzerland is not a member of the EU, "around 40% of Swiss
legislation derives from EU rules - ironically more than twice as much
as in the British context " according to a report by the University of
Kent. |
Trade between Britain and the rest of the world
after Brexit
|
| As
a sovereign nation, we will be able to set up any trade agreements we
want with any nation or group of nations in the world. We will no
longer have to wait for the cumbersome machinery of Europe, in order to
set up agreements with countries outside Europe, and this will be a big
stimulus for British trade and services. |
As Barack
Obama pointed out, even if it is currently the world's sixth largest
economy, Britain will not be a priority for larger trading blocs or
nations like the USA. Britain will have to go to "the back of the
queue", as Obama put it, and will not get preferential deals.
Other nations will have far more interest in setting up trade
agreements with the EU than with Britain, given that the EU is a far
bigger market than the UK. |
The NHS and health care
|
A lot of the money currently being paid into the EU budget can be used
instead to increase funding for the NHS. And with less immigration to
the UK, there will be less pressure on services, so waiting times will
fall and the quality of service will improve. We will be able to
recruit more nurses and doctors from Commonwealth countries to replace
the EU health workers that are now recruited to help run our health and
social services.
Foreign visitors to the UK will have to pay for any health
care services they use |
There
will be very little extra money specifically available for the NHS, if
we stop paying into the EU budget. Besides, if we want to obtain a
privileged trade agreement with the EU, we will still either need to
pay into the EU budget and/or accept free movement of people, as Norway
and Switzerland do; so there may be no extra money at all - or no less
people.
In addition, by leaving the EU, Britain will be out
of the European Union health insurance scheme. Britons will no longer
be eligible for a free EHIC card, giving them access to national health
care systems throughout the European Union. Instead, holidaymakers and
business travellers to Europe will need to purchase costly health
insurance... yet another cost of leaving. |
Politics and government in Britain after Brexit
|
Following a
referendum vote to leave Europe, David Cameron remains provisionally as
Prime Minister, as he has said he will do, handing over to a new leader
in 2019, before the next general election. Boris Johnson will become
the next Prime Minister, and the Conservatives, now reunited as a
party, can govern serenely to enact a seamless transition to a
prosperous new age of Britain outside the European Union.
Thanks to the return of millions of voters who had gone over
to UKIP, the Conservatives under Boris Johnson win a handsome victory
at the 2020 General Election,
With Britain now out of Europe, UKIP no longer has much
reason to exist; it therefore disbands, melts away, or is
merged with the Conservative Party, and the new government, with a
substantial majority in parliament, is in a position of force not just
to govern the UK, but to represent the UK's interests on the
international stage. |
Following a referendum vote to leave Europe, the
Conservative party is thrown into disarray. David Cameron rapidly steps
down, and is replaced by someone else; but the Conservative party is
now seriously fractured and a number of Conservative MPs, deeply
unhappy with the way the party's lurch towards isolationism, break away
to form a new centre-right party.
Without a parliamentary majority, the new PM struggles on
until 2020, or else decides to call an early election. With both the
Conservatives and Labour seriously divided, the election campaign is
nastier than ever before. In one secenario, the new
Conservatives sweep back to power with the help of UKIP voters, and
form a very right-wing government pledged to roll back not just any
remaining bits of EU legislation, but a whole raft of "interfering"
national legislation in the fields of environmental protection, social
protection, human rights and justice. The Scots meanwhile vote for
independence, but the new Conservative government does not accept this
attempt to break up the UK.
In an alternative scenario, given the turmoil that
has engulfed Britain since the referendum, the Conservatives lose
heavily, and Labour, still under Jeremy Corbyn, emerges as the single
largest party. In the end, Labour is forced to form a coalition with
the Scottish Nationalists |
Copyright
:
© Andrew Rossiter and About-Britain.com
2016
|
About-Britain.com