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What if the EU referendum result is a dead heat?

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For an up to date overview of the Brexit saga, and of British attitudes to European integration, see Brexit.....

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24th June 2016
BRITAIN'S BLACKEST HOUR
UK voters' decision to take Britain out of the European Union marked the blackest hour of the blackest day for Britain since Neville Chamberlain flew back from Munich in September 1938 proclaiming "I have returned from Germany with peace for our time".
   Chamberlain's was a rosy view. Less than a year later, Britain and Europe were plunged into the Second World War.
   Brexit is unlikely to lead to war; but it will lead, and indeed has already started to lead  to economic chaos for Britain and Europe too.
   Overnight, the value of sterling  had its sharpest fall ever, devaluing by 10% against the dollar. Sterling is currently at its lowest since 1985, and further falls are expected.


The world awaits the result of Britain's referendum

What the world thinks....A selection of international commentary on Britain's Brexit referendum
Canada: the Toronto Star
USA :  the New York Times,   the Los Angeles Times
Australia : Sydney Morning Herald
Germany : Der Spiegel (in English)
  On the night of Thursday 23rd June,  the world, its political leaders, its economists, its stock markets, its journalists and people in general, will anxiously await news of the result of the UK's in-out referendum on continued membership of the European Union.
   Maybe, within seconds of the closing of the last polling booths at 22.00 h GMT, the BBC, ITV, Sky News and other pundits will be announcing a clear result based on exit polls or other data. Britain has voted to remain a member of the EU; or the British have chosen to leave the European Union.
   In the event of a clear vote for Britain to remain in the EU, millions in Britain and worldwide will breathe a huge sigh of relief, wipe the sweat off their brows, and maybe open a bottle of bubbly to celebrate. In the event of a clear vote in favour of Britain leaving the EU, some, mostly in Britain, will celebrate, while others in the UK and worldwide will pour a stiff whisky and brace themselves for the impending destabilization of the British, European and generally speaking global economies.
   Outside of the UK, few people apart from very right-wing parties, few countries (apart, it is reported, from North Korea who want anything that will destabilise the West) and no international organisations, want Britain to plunge the European economy and possibly even the world economy into turmoil and recession by calling for a "Brexit"; but  a virtual dead-heat would be almost as bad as it would lead to months, possibly years, or wrangling.

A tie... A 50/50 split...

   But what if, when those first estimates are made, they all point to "Too close to call" ? What if they predict a hung vote, a 50/50 split in the vote, or even a 49.7 / 50.3 split one way or another?  In this event, there will be no uncorking of the bubbly, but more likely the downing of thousands of strong coffees as the fate of Britain and the EU hangs on a knife-edge and millions worldwide forgo sleep as alarm turns to worry or to anxiety or to hope or to nail-biting suspense, while the results trickle in from around Britain, pushing the probabilities towards a likely in, or a likely out verdict.
  Pundits and commentators will occupy TV and radio studios worldwide, giving their expert opinions on which way the vote is likely to go, and what will happen after; though of course until the final vote is in, or at least, until the ever-updated tally of votes cast shows a sufficiently stable tendency in favour of one result or the other, no expert opinion will be more than just that, an opinion.. The old adage comes to mind : "Even when all the experts are in agreement, they may still be wrong."

And the result is.... a tie

And so to some time on Friday 24th June, when all the results are finally in, and the count has been completed. At this point an official at Manchester town hall will come to a microphone and announce the result. And the world will hold its breath as he announces...
  "..... the number of votes cast in favour of the United Kingdom remaining part of the European Union is (pause)  Twenty-one million, three hundred and four thousand, six hundred and eighty four. (long pause) And the total number of votes cast in favour of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union is (pause) Twenty-one million, three hundred and four thousand, six hundred and eighty two."

 Momentarily, a stunned silence fills the room; but then uproar. Pandemonium.
   – It's a dead heat.
   – No it's not, we're in by two votes.
   – Come off it! A win's a win.
   – But that's not a win.........

This is politics fiction, but it could happen. It is by no means fiction beyond the realms of possibility. And if by some quirk of fate it does happen like this, what will happen next? A hung vote in a referendum campaign is not like a hung vote in parliamentary elections: there's no option to cobble together a coalition of minorities to form a majority government.

So what will actually happen ?

   The answer is that no-one knows. Prime-Minister David Cameron may have a contingency plan in place, but if he has, he's keeping it to himself. There are however some points about which we can be fairly certain.
  •    In the event of a dead heat or a result that is very close to a dead heat, there will have to be a recount. And since recounting maybe forty million votes will certainly not give the same result the second time round, there could be calls for a third recount... even a fourth. And during all this time, the world will be on tenterhooks and the global economy could go into crisis-management mode. If there is one thing that stock markets and economies do not like, it is uncertainty; and you won't be able to find anything much more uncertain than recounts in a game-changing poll like the Brexit referendum. And remember, "stock markets and economies" are not "them"; they are "us"; they are not the enemy, and we can't gloat over problems on the stock market, as if it just meant a bloody nose for bankers.  Panic on the stock markets and world currency markets, which will follow a 50/50 split or a vote for Brexit, will be (not may be) bad news for us all - for our pension funds, for our employment, for our job security, for our savings
  • A dead-heat result would certainly not give the Prime Minister an unequivocal mandate to take Britain out of the European Union... notably if parts of the UK such as Scotland have voted strongly in favour of remaining in the EU. 
  • Any attempt to take the UK out of the EU on the basis of a referendum won by a very slender majority would lead to concerted challenges in the courts and in parliament. And an attempt to keep the UK in the EU if the out vote lost – or won – by only a few votes would also lead to challenges. In short, any action, and indeed any inaction, based on a near-dead-heat result would be sure to face multiple challenges.
  • A dead-heat result will amplify divisions in the Conservative party and in Britain as a whole, and be  bad for the British economy; the losers will not just lie down and accept the result.

   In the end, perhaps the most probable result of a dead-heat result in the referendum on June 23rd will be a continuation of the status quo, while David Cameron gets back on his hobby horse, and again does the rounds of EU countries and Brussels in an attempt to win more guarantees that will get the approval of some Eurosceptics, and help ensure a clear result in favour of the "in" campaign in a second referendum organised in 2017 or 2018.
    Alternatively, Parliament may be asked to take the ultimate decision, taking account of the fact that UK voters are evenly divided on the issue. In that case, Britain will not leave the EU... since the large majority of MPs of all parties except the Democratic Unionists of Ulster, will vote to remain. The voices of the Eurosceptics will then become ever louder.
    One way or another, a hung vote, a draw or a dead-heat in the EU Brexit referendum will not be a good result for anyone. No more than a vote to Leave will be any good for anyone... except of course Boris Johnson whose dream of becoming prime minister may come true.

See also :  Why Britain needs Europe






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 © Andrew Rossiter and About-Britain.com 2016 







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