About-Britain.com
A thematic guide to the UK
► For an up to date
overview of the Brexit saga, and of British attitudes to European
integration, see Brexit.....
Archived page
24th June 2016
BRITAIN'S BLACKEST HOUR
UK voters' decision to take Britain out of the European Union marked
the blackest hour of the blackest day for Britain
since Neville Chamberlain flew back from Munich in September 1938
proclaiming "I have returned from Germany with peace for our
time".
Chamberlain's was a rosy view. Less than a year
later, Britain and Europe were plunged into the Second World War.
Brexit is unlikely to lead to war; but it will lead, and
indeed
has already started to lead to economic chaos for Britain and
Europe too.
Overnight, the value of sterling had
its sharpest fall ever, devaluing by 10% against the dollar. Sterling
is currently at its lowest since 1985, and further falls are expected.
The world
awaits the result of Britain's referendum
On the night of Thursday 23rd June, the world, its
political leaders, its economists, its stock markets, its journalists
and people in general, will anxiously await news of the result of the
UK's in-out referendum on continued membership of the European Union.
Maybe, within seconds of the closing of the last
polling booths at 22.00 h GMT, the BBC, ITV, Sky News and other pundits
will be announcing a clear result based on exit polls or other data.
Britain has
voted to remain a member of the EU; or the British have chosen to leave
the European Union.
In the event of a clear vote for Britain to remain
in the EU, millions in Britain and worldwide will breathe a huge sigh
of relief, wipe the sweat off their brows, and maybe open a bottle of
bubbly to celebrate. In the event of a clear vote in favour of Britain
leaving the EU, some, mostly in Britain, will celebrate, while others
in the UK and worldwide will pour a stiff whisky and brace themselves
for the impending destabilization of the British, European and
generally speaking global economies.
Outside of the UK, few people apart from very right-wing
parties,
few countries (apart, it is reported, from North Korea who want
anything that will destabilise the West) and no international
organisations, want Britain
to plunge the European economy and possibly even the world economy into
turmoil and recession by calling for a "Brexit"; but a
virtual
dead-heat would be almost as bad as it would lead to months, possibly
years, or wrangling.
A tie... A 50/50 split...
But what if, when those first estimates are made,
they all point to "Too close to call" ? What if they predict
a hung vote, a 50/50 split in the vote, or even a 49.7 / 50.3 split one
way or
another? In this event, there will be no uncorking of the
bubbly, but more likely the downing of thousands of strong coffees as
the fate of Britain and the EU hangs on a knife-edge and millions
worldwide forgo sleep as alarm turns to worry or to anxiety or to hope
or to nail-biting suspense, while the results trickle in from around
Britain,
pushing the probabilities towards a likely in, or a likely out
verdict.
Pundits and commentators will occupy TV and radio studios
worldwide, giving their expert opinions on which way the vote is likely
to go, and what will happen after; though of course until the final
vote is in, or at least, until the ever-updated tally of votes cast
shows a sufficiently stable tendency in favour of one result or the
other, no expert opinion will be more than just that, an opinion.. The
old adage comes to mind : "Even when all the experts are in agreement,
they may still be wrong."
And the result is.... a tie
And so to some time on Friday 24th June, when all the results are
finally in, and the count has been completed. At this point an official
at Manchester town hall will come to a microphone and announce the
result. And the world will hold its breath as he announces...
"..... the number of votes cast in favour of the United
Kingdom remaining part of the European Union is (pause)
Twenty-one million, three hundred and four thousand, six hundred and
eighty four. (long pause) And the total number of votes cast in favour
of the United Kingdom leaving
the European Union is (pause) Twenty-one million, three hundred and
four thousand, six hundred and eighty two."
Momentarily, a stunned silence fills the room; but then
uproar. Pandemonium.
– It's a dead heat.
– No it's not, we're in by two votes.
– Come off it! A win's a win.
– But that's not a win.........
This is politics fiction, but it could happen. It is by no means
fiction beyond the realms of possibility. And if by some quirk of fate
it does happen like this, what will happen next? A hung vote in a
referendum campaign is not like a hung vote in parliamentary elections:
there's no option to cobble together a coalition of minorities to form
a majority government.
So what will actually happen ?
The answer is that no-one knows. Prime-Minister
David Cameron may have a contingency plan in place, but if he has, he's
keeping it to himself. There are however some points about which we can
be fairly certain.
- In the event of a dead heat or a
result that is very close to a dead heat, there will have to be a
recount. And since recounting maybe forty million votes will certainly
not give the same result the second time round, there could be calls
for a third recount... even a fourth. And during all this time, the
world will be on tenterhooks and the global economy could go into
crisis-management mode. If there is one thing that stock markets and
economies do not like, it is uncertainty; and you won't be able to find
anything much more uncertain than recounts in a game-changing poll like
the Brexit referendum. And remember, "stock markets and economies" are
not "them"; they are "us"; they are not the enemy, and we can't gloat
over problems on the stock market, as if it just meant a bloody nose
for bankers. Panic on the stock markets and world currency
markets, which will follow a 50/50 split or a vote for Brexit, will be
(not may
be) bad news for us all -
for our pension funds, for our employment, for our job security, for
our savings
- A dead-heat result would certainly not give the Prime
Minister an unequivocal mandate to take Britain out of the European
Union... notably if parts of the UK such as Scotland have voted
strongly in favour of remaining in the EU.
- Any attempt to take the UK out of the EU on the basis
of a referendum won by a very slender majority would lead to concerted
challenges in the courts and in parliament. And an attempt to keep the
UK in the EU if the out vote lost – or won – by
only a few votes would
also lead to challenges. In short, any action, and indeed any inaction,
based on a near-dead-heat result would be sure to face multiple
challenges.
- A dead-heat result will amplify divisions in the
Conservative party and in Britain as a whole, and be bad for
the British economy; the losers will not just lie down and accept the
result.
In the end, perhaps the most probable result of a
dead-heat result in the referendum on June 23rd will be a continuation
of the status quo, while David Cameron gets back on his hobby horse,
and again does the rounds of EU countries and Brussels in an attempt to
win more guarantees that will get the approval of some Eurosceptics,
and help ensure a clear result in favour of the "in" campaign in a
second referendum organised in 2017 or 2018.
Alternatively, Parliament may be asked to take
the ultimate decision, taking account of the fact that UK voters are
evenly divided on the issue. In that case, Britain will not leave the
EU... since the large majority of MPs of all parties except the
Democratic Unionists of Ulster, will vote to remain. The voices of the
Eurosceptics will then become ever louder.
One way or another, a hung vote, a draw or a
dead-heat in the EU Brexit referendum will not be a good result for
anyone. No more than a vote to Leave will be any good for anyone...
except of course Boris Johnson whose dream of becoming prime minister
may come true.
|
About-Britain.com
- A
discovery of Britain, the country and its life